Quantifying unmet housing need and evaluating policy impact helps shape reform for a fairer, more productive housing system.
A recent confluence of housing policy initiatives offers a rare opportunity to decisively reset Australia鈥檚 future housing trajectory in the public interest, says an expert from the 鲍狈厂奥听City Futures Research Centre.
鈥淲e鈥檝e witnessed considerably ramped-up housing reform activism 鈥 and social/affordable housing expenditure 鈥 in the early 2020s,鈥 says Emeritus Professor Hal Pawson.
鈥淭his is in marked contrast to the general stagnation and inaction of the previous decade. In just the last three years, serious foundations have been laid for potentially significant new directions in housing policy and housing delivery, particularly at a federal level.鈥
Three separate national reforms legislated in the 2022-25 Parliament 鈥 the Help to Buy and Build to Rent schemes and the Housing Australia Future Fund investment program 鈥 all contribute to a 鈥渉ealthier housing system鈥, the housing research and policy expert says.
They assist moderate income first home buyers into owner occupancy; open up scope to expand quality rental housing production by financial institutions, such as pension funds and insurance companies; and create a federally funded pipeline of social and affordable housing investment respectively.
鈥淲hile many might rightly argue that these initiatives do not go far enough 鈥 they are modestly-scaled and narrowly targeted 鈥 they provide a promising platform for long-overdue progressive change.鈥
In their newly-published second edition of , Prof. Pawson and co-author Honorary Professor Vivienne Milligan outline 鈥渁 pathway to the transformational national strategy needed for a fairer and more productive housing system鈥.
The book presented the first comprehensive overview of Australian housing policy for 25 years when it was first published in 2020. Now, extensively revised for 2025, its reform agenda has been substantially re-drafted to address the complex housing policy challenges of the mid-2020s.
鈥淗ousing unaffordability has been widely felt across the globe since the 1990s,鈥 says Prof. Pawson.
鈥淗owever, its unusually marked intensification in Australia owes much to government policy inaction, mistaken policy choices and resistance to evidence-based critical analysis.鈥
The book analyses the causes and implications of falling home ownership, rising rental stress rates and the long-term neglect of social housing, including the housing situation of Indigenous Australians.
It contributes evidence-led strategies to ameliorate the housing crisis. 鈥淚t is decades since Australia has seen fundamental housing system reform,鈥 Prof. Pawson says.
鈥淢arked changes in the international and national economic context over the last quarter century have supercharged private housing investment.
鈥淭his has had inflationary consequences for property prices and the flow of economic rent to landowners, while the sharp interest rate hikes and COVID-19 disruption of the early 2020s badly aggravated the situation.
鈥淭hese developments, in turn, have further entrenched the trend towards escalating wealth inequality between owners and renters, and between older homeowners and younger generations, who have been excluded from home ownership at an increasing rate.鈥
Today, the housing crisis is a matter of daily national discourse and decisive remedial action across both housing and housing-related policies is urgent, he says.
鈥淚f we recognise the human right to adequate housing, as defined in international law, then the Federal Government is obliged to develop, maintain and implement a national housing strategy embedded in law.
鈥淭his means addressing housing quality as well as quantity challenges to address ongoing equity issues.鈥
The book, in its first edition, attracted a substantial readership in industry, government and academia. Its analysis and reform propositions have fed through into policy debates across the country, influencing advocacy and government considerations.
Distinguished Professor of Economics at Curtin University and Member of the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, Rachel Ong ViforJ described it as 鈥渁n essential guide for understanding 鈥 how our housing system became mired in an ever-expanding web of complex challenges鈥.
Dr Marcus Spiller, a highly respected planning consultant and Vice Chair of the Australian Government鈥檚 says: 鈥淭he book has had a huge impact on policy thinking.
鈥淚 like to think that we are at a point of inflexion on housing policy, with a vision for a genuinely 鈥榤ixed鈥 system [i.e. including a significant non-market social and affordable housing component] rather than putting all our eggs in the market efficiency basket. And I鈥檓 convinced the book has had a major part in that.鈥
More recently, Prof. Pawson was commissioned by the (QCOSS) to lead two CFRC studies to develop actionable state-level policy solutions for the sunshine state.
鈥淚n the post-pandemic period, Queensland faced unprecedented housing pressures, with rent inflation and homelessness rising faster than any other jurisdiction,鈥 Prof. Pawson says.
鈥淭he state鈥檚 housing and rental crisis starkly illustrated many of the system flaws outlined in our book.
鈥淒eclining home ownership, growing private rental stress, rising homelessness and shrinking social housing capacity were all there, writ large, in Queensland when we researched these issues in 2023 and 2024.鈥
The team鈥檚 2023 , A Blueprint to Tackle Queensland鈥檚 Housing Crisis, was commissioned by The Town of Nowhere聽campaign and supported financially by Tenants Queensland and The Services Union.
The report鈥檚 wide-ranging policy review used to demonstrate the scale and profile of unmet housing needs and formulated a comprehensive roadmap to address the housing crisis.
鈥淭he severity of the housing crisis more broadly is hidden by the absence of basic statistics on key social and affordable housing 鈥 an issue we recommend is addressed by establishing their annual publication, at state as well as national levels,鈥 he says.
鈥淭he study revealed around 150,000 households across Queensland with unmet housing needs. That is, people either or struggling to make ends meet as low-income private renters paying more than 30% of household income in rent.鈥
More than 100,000 of these households would typically be eligible for social housing, the study found. This dwarfed the number of households officially registered on the Queensland social housing waiting list, approximately 27,000.
鈥The report laid out an evidence-backed reform package to tackle the housing crisis at a state level, with suggestions on federal input as well. Many of these could be actioned at no cost to the government.鈥
National policy recommendations included reforming private landlord tax concessions and helping Queensland to phase in broad-based land tax to replace stamp duty, as well as overhauling rent assistance.
State-level recommendations included further strengthening rental regulation and expanding social and affordable rental housing.
The subsequent 2024 report, , found that Queensland鈥檚 house price and rent inflation had continued to outpace Australia as a whole.
Brisbane property prices increased by 65% from 2020-2024, almost double the Australian capital city average (34%). New tenancy rents rose by 45% over the same period.
鈥淪ince 2020, the number of new lettings at rents affordable to low-income households in the state had plunged from 23% to just 10%t of all private tenancies raising serious equity issues.鈥
In March 2024, less than 1% of all available rentals were affordable to a single person earning minimum wage. 鈥淯nfortunately, these conditions can mean being pushed into homelessness.鈥
Accordingly, the number of Queenslanders depending on homelessness services grew by 34% in the five years to 2024, with more families seeking emergency help to survive. 鈥淔or some, the shortage of affordable rental homes means being condemned to living in tents and cars or being stuck in motel rooms.鈥
The research helped inform QCOSS鈥檚 reform proposals and campaigns. 鈥淭he evidence-based solutions outlined in [the reports] 鈥 have enabled our effective participation in housing reform discussions,鈥 said QCOSS CEO, Aimee McVeigh.
鈥淯sing the solutions outlined in the blueprint, we can demonstrate to government that the housing crisis is solvable.鈥
鈥淭he book and our related research has highlighted the need for more cohesive policymaking,鈥 says Prof. Pawson.
鈥淭hroughout, we identify current and future housing challenges for Australian governments, recognising these as a complex set of interconnected problems that demand an integrated policy response.
鈥淚mportantly, our 2023 report argued that Queensland鈥檚 housing affordability and homelessness problems had been compounded by the state鈥檚 fragmented and underpowered approach to policymaking in these areas.鈥澛
Consistent with this analysis, and as reflected in the team鈥檚 2024 , the Queensland Government undertook a large-scale reorganisation of housing policy governance during 2023-24, creating a unified stand-alone housing department, a cross-departmental housing committee and an expert advisory panel.
鈥淭his represents progress towards rebuilding housing policymaking capacity within government,鈥 says Prof Pawson. 鈥淭he Federal Government鈥檚 more recent integration of its previously fragmented housing policy teams within Treasury is an equally laudable move.
鈥淥ur hope is that this whole stream of research can inform the wide-ranging roadmap of feasible and realistic policies needed to confront Australia鈥檚 housing policy challenge.
鈥淧ursued with ambition by Australian governments, a more coherent and integrated policy reform agenda can enable a fairer and more productive housing system for the benefit of all.鈥澛
School of Built Environment
Emeritus Professor Hal Pawson
Pillar 7: Advance economic and social prosperity
