The United States has launched on Iran in response to the Iranian targeting of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
These are of the Memorandum of Understanding that came into effect on June 17, and may signal an end to the truce.
For the first time since the initial ceasefire on April 8, US President Donald Trump has the ceasefire is over.
These escalating tensions suggest the ceasefire will not turn into a permanent peace. The US is being drawn into a long war with Iran, against its will.
Fighting for control
The key sticking point that has driven the latest round of strikes is Iran鈥檚 determination to impose control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Memorandum of Understanding stated Iran would use its 鈥溾 to ensure safe passage of commercial vessels through the strait with no charge for 60 days.
However, tensions immediately spiked over ships using the 鈥淥mani route鈥 through the strait. This is a US-endorsed maritime corridor that hugs the coast of Oman and involves .
Iran wants vessels to use a second route that passes along the Iranian coast and is closely monitored and controlled by Iran.
The strait is for Iran to maintain control over both routes without the use, or threatened use, of force.
Iran has shown it is willing to to deter vessels from sailing the Omani route.
A battle of different strengths
One reason it has been so hard for the ceasefire to hold is that US and Iran have different strengths. Neither sees themselves as having surrendered.
The US is militarily strong, with overwhelming military capability.
But it has weak political resolve. or put boots on the ground in Iran. The US does not want to expend its military arsenal in a long war, or focus its global military efforts on the Iranian regime.
So, while the US has the military capability, it is highly unlikely to force regime change in Iran or forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian regime鈥檚 greatest strength is its political resolve. It is determined to survive.
Since key political leaders were killed at the start of this war, the regime has become even more hardline and militaristic. The current regime is .
Iran is determined to show the US and the region that it is in control and will not back down. It is willing to bear staggering economic and security costs to achieve this aim.
Iran鈥檚 resolve is shown in its willingness to threaten civilian vessels in the strait with drones and attack boats.
The Iranian regime鈥檚 . Iran has suffered massive economic and military damage as a result of this war. It could not weather another long US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and sustained US air strikes on infrastructure and military targets.
The power of domestic politics
The very different domestic landscapes in the US and Iran are driving both parties closer to a breakdown of the ceasefire.
In Iran, as noted, the war has led to a hardened regime with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) more . Iranian leaders who even talk to US counterparts, let alone make concessions, may risk being branded political traitors by some IRGC elements.
As history has shown with the assassinations of President Anwar Sadat in Egypt and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in Israel , leaders can put their own life on the line if they make agreements with counterparts considered sworn enemies by hardliners in their own country.
This drives Iran to focus on controlling the Strait of Hormuz and appearing uncompromising, rather than capitulating to enjoy the economic benefits of sanctions relief and the promised US$300 billion .
Trump, on the other hand, does not want to return to full-scale war due to a .
However, Trump is also influenced by those in the US who with no agreement on the nuclear issues, and Iran in full control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump expects Iran to cooperate with the Memorandum of Understanding due to its promised economic benefits. But he has vastly underestimated Iran鈥檚 determination to assert dominance over the strait and control in the region.
What will happen from here?
Trump鈥檚 reticence for full-scale escalation means we are unlikely to return to the war of February 28.
Iran鈥檚 determination to show control means we are also not likely to see the ceasefire hold or a substantial peace agreement forthcoming.
The most likely scenario is we will return to the status quo from the first ceasefire of April 8 until June 17. This was a precarious truce, below the threshold of all-out war, but also not a substantive peace.
Tit-for-tat strikes will continue over coming months. The Strait of Hormuz will remain partially closed with security uncertain.
As I have previously noted, this is more akin to a than a full ceasefire or a return to full-scale war. 
, Academic Director, School of Public Policy and Government,
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