The latest Ebola outbreak is showing no signs of slowing.
On April 24, the of the rare Bundibugyo strain of Ebola was detected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). On May 17, the World Health Organisation a 鈥淧ublic Health Emergency of International Concern鈥.
The current Ebola outbreak is the in world history, with and in the DRC alone as of 27 May.
And it may have spread to other continents. Health authorities are now investigating in Italy, and in Brazil. All three are believed to be travellers returning from either the DRC or Uganda. who tested positive for Ebola is currently being treated in Germany.
As concerns grow, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations has committed more than in funding to fast-track the development of three potential vaccines, targeting the Bundibugyo strain.
But in the meantime, could this outbreak spread further? And how concerned should we be?
A deadly virus
Ebola is a rare but virus that mainly spreads through with the bodily fluids 鈥 such as blood, faeces and vomit 鈥 of an infected person.
of Ebola include sore throat, headaches, fever, fatigue and body pain. Severe Ebola cases skin rashes, shortness of breath, vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain and seizures.
Ebola was in humans in 1976. Since then, there have been more than around the world, with the majority occurring in African countries.
The current outbreak is the third ever to be caused by the rare . The majority of past outbreaks were driven by the more deadly Zaire strain, which kills of people compared to for Bundibugyo.
What is driving this latest outbreak?
The factors driving this latest outbreak to the devastating West African outbreak of 2014-16, where more than .
In both outbreaks, the virus had been circulating for months before an outbreak was declared, and initial cases had .
Both outbreaks also rapidly spread in . Transmission in is another common factor.
Political instability and social unrest also contributed to both outbreaks. Most recently in the DRC, crowds have to hospital tents, prompting some patients to flee isolation wards.
And certain cultural practices 鈥 including traditional burial rituals that often involve handling dead bodies 鈥 may have of both outbreaks.
How it crossed continents
Similar to the West African outbreak, this latest Ebola outbreak has spread to other continents through travel.
and have already been reported in Uganda, which shares a border with the DRC.
An who tested positive for Ebola while working in the DRC, is in a stable condition after being treated in Germany.
In Italy, authorities a traveller who recently returned from the DRC to the city of Cagliari.
According to some reports, Brazilian authorities two suspected Ebola cases. They are believed to be two travellers, one who returned from the DRC to S茫o Paulo and the other from Uganda to Rio de Janeiro.
Importantly, both suspected cases have been diagnosed with . The S茫o Paulo patient presented with fever and was later diagnosed with severe meningitis. The Rio de Janeiro patient tested positive for malaria after developing a cough, chills and diarrhoea, but has since for Ebola.
So for now, no Ebola cases have been confirmed in Brazil. But these suspected cases have prompted the country to activate its Ebola safety protocols, including patient isolation, laboratory testing, and epidemiological investigations.
Meanwhile, several countries have imposed travel restrictions to prevent Ebola from reaching their shores.
Both the and are temporarily restricting entry for travellers from the DRC, Uganda and South Sudan. The and other countries such as are also strengthening public health screening and disease monitoring measures, particularly at airports. Some countries have mandated a 21-day quarantine period for their citizens returning from the DRC.
Could it spread further, including to Australia?
At this stage, the risk of Ebola reaching Australia is very low.
Australia has not put in place any travel or quarantine requirements for affected countries, but federal health minister Mark Butler says authorities are still monitoring the outbreak 鈥溾.
Based on lessons from past outbreaks, there are three main ways the current Central African outbreak could play out.
Without effective control measures, cases may surge in the coming months. suggest that by mid-May, up to 1,000 cases had already occurred in the DRC, compared to official figures of about 900 cases. So the actual number of Ebola cases may be much higher than authorities realise.
In a more favorable scenario, a strengthened public health response could bring this latest outbreak under control. This would be possible with continued support from the international community, the rapid development of vaccines and community engagement.
However, the most realistic outcome is cases will continue to rise before authorities successfully contain the current outbreak.
Nevertheless, the international community responded much more swiftly to this outbreak, particularly compared to the devastating 2014-16 West African outbreak. That alone may protect us from an outbreak of the same catastrophic scale and cost.
, Senior Lecturer, Infectious Diseases Epidemiology and Control, ; , Professor, School of Population Health, , and , Lecturer,
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