A year has passed since conflict broke out between India and Pakistan, briefly raising fears of an all-out war between the two nuclear powers.
While violent conflict between the neighbours has been commonplace for the past 80 years, this latest round of fighting felt different.
Both sides against one another, including cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and drones. The level of mistrust and sharp rhetoric worsened considerably, significantly testing regional partnerships.
One year later, tensions remain high, with an underlying risk of further escalation.
What happened last year?
The war broke out last May following a that killed 26 civilians in the Pahalgam area of Indian Kashmir on April 22.
Within days, Indian claimed the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba was behind the attack. Pakistan any involvement.
Then, on May 7, India launched against alleged terrorist strongholds in Pakistan, which prompted a Pakistani retaliatory attack, .
are believed to have been killed. As in any India-Pakistan conflict, the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons .
The four-day conflict came to an end with a ceasefire on May 10. It was by the Trump administration, which claimed to have mediated the deal. This India, but Pakistan US President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
, boasting of its ability to deliver precise attacks far inside Pakistani territory, exposing weaknesses in its rival鈥檚 air defences. Pakistan, meanwhile, to have shot down five Indian fighter jets (which ).
Political ramifications
In Pakistan, the Pakistani military returned to the political mainstream following the conflict. After leading Pakistan鈥檚 military response to India, the chief of army staff, Syed Asim Munir, was elevated to field marshal, and then to the post of the country鈥檚 first .
惭耻苍颈谤鈥檚 has only grown since. He has become very close to Trump and has been a between the US and Iran to bring an end to their war.
In India, Operation Sindoor was seen as a win for the Modi government鈥檚 decisive foreign policy, and was a moment of rare political in the country.
However, in Kashmir, the terror attack raised fresh questions about the government鈥檚 claims of in the region 鈥 and its 鈥 following the controversial of Kashmir鈥檚 statehood in 2019.
In the weeks that followed the attack, security operations in the Kashmir valley shut down several tourist sites. This led to a sharp and severely affected local businesses. Security operations also targeted civilians, human rights experts.
Shifting regional dynamics
Perhaps the most significant impact of the conflict has been the difference in diplomatic engagements of both countries.
The war highlighted Pakistan鈥檚 operational cooperation with both China and Turkey. The and missiles in its attacks, as well as . Its was enabled by China, too.
After the war, Pakistan also signed a with the Trump administration to develop Pakistan鈥檚 oil reserves, and a with Saudi Arabia, a staunch US ally.
India had pursued a decade-long push to isolate Pakistan diplomatically, which made Pakistan鈥檚 increasing bonhomie with the US and Gulf states particularly .
Prime Minister Narendra Modi鈥檚 , meanwhile, began to deteriorate over US tariffs and India鈥檚 purchase of .
Modi鈥檚 ill-timed to Israel and the visible lack of influence in the US鈥揑ran war has also raised questions about India鈥檚 professed role as a regional leader. It has highlighted the limits to India鈥檚 strategy of balancing its strategic partnerships, especially during conflict.
India has tried to engage in proactive diplomacy, delegations of MPs and former diplomats to more than 30 countries over the past year. While India claims these visits were a success, they to convince the world that Pakistan was the aggressor in their conflict.
Where do things go from here?
One year on, the political rhetoric on both sides is as charged as ever.
Both and Pakistan have a for further escalation in future conflicts.
Despite a sliver of hope for secret , India continues to give over its alleged support to terrorist groups.
India has also reiterated that a major water-sharing treaty between the countries until Pakistan takes steps to end its support for terrorism 鈥 leaving a major concern over water security .
In response, Pakistan any attempt to target Pakistan again would 鈥渢rigger consequences鈥 that would not be 鈥済eographically confined or strategically or politically palatable for India鈥.
The shifting geopolitics and heightened rhetoric have narrowed the space for any prospects of meaningful dialogue between the two. As a result, the alarmingly low levels of trust will remain.
The ceasefire holds for now, but the conflict continues unabated.
, Lecturer, Indo-Pacific Studies,
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