US President Donald Trump is a longtime and , who his own energy policy as “drill, baby, drill”. Yet he is doing more than almost anyone to speed up the global shift from fossil fuels to clean energy and electric vehicles (EVs).
After the US and Israel struck Iran in late February, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz and triggered the largest disruption of oil supply .
Ironically for Trump and his , this crisis may be an irreversible tipping point for clean energy. For years, fossil fuel advocates spruiked oil, gas and coal as “reliable” energy. That narrative has been reversed. Fossil fuels have become expensive and unreliable, while renewables are cheap, reliable and secure.
For the first time ever, more than 50 nations will gather next week in Colombia to hash out how to wind down and end their dependence on coal, oil and gas. The was planned before the Iran war. But this year’s energy crisis has greatly raised the stakes.
The oil crisis is real
Iran’s closure of the narrow Strait of Hormuz stopped oil tankers reaching their destinations. But that wasn’t all. More than 60 gas and oil sites in the conflict so far. Even if a durable ceasefire is reached, these impacts will reverberate for months and years to come.
Around 80% of the trapped crude oil was . Faced with dwindling supply, the region’s governments are such as sending workers home, banning government travel, rationing fuel and cutting school hours.
The problem is especially bad in the Pacific. Many island nations use diesel for power generation. In response, leaders .
Fuel import bills were already a major burden for Pacific nations, leading to efforts to . Fuel bills by A$933 million in Fiji (nearly three times the healthcare budget).
Scrambling for energy
When energy supplies are disrupted, leaders have three options: find alternate supplies, reduce use or switch to alternatives. In the very short term, countries aim to shore up supply, just as Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did last week .
Countries have also moved to . This can have . During the Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s, oil prices tripled and then doubled again. Authorities responded by improving energy productivity to do more with less. The world’s final oil demand per capita and has never recovered.
But the real difference from half a century ago is that fossil fuel alternatives are ready for prime time. Since the 1970s, the price of solar panels has , while the cost of wind has since 1984. Battery prices have since 1991.
This means it’s now viable for many nations to .
The European Union will , after its fossil fuel bill increased more than $36 billion . France has to help households switch to EVs and electrify home heating. Import-dependent South Korea gets through the Strait of Hormuz. It now plans to double renewables capacity .
Electric vehicles at the tipping point?
This year’s oil shock shows signs of creating an unplanned social tipping point – a threshold for self-propelling change beyond which systems shift from one state to another. Climate scientists warn of which amplify feedback and accelerate warming. But social scientists also point to – collective action that rapidly accelerates climate action.
The rush to EVs is a case in point. In Australia, petrol prices , and diesel . It’s no surprise new EV sales are at an , while secondhand EV sales last month.
Australia’s 1.3 million hybrid and battery electric vehicles avoid almost 15 million litres of petrol and diesel use .
The rush to electric transport is global. Most new Chinese cars are , not oil. Battery electric vehicles for the first time in Europe in January.
A conference to quit fossil fuels
The routine burning of coal, oil and gas is the of the climate crisis. The world’s highest court last year made clear nations have obligations to .
But fossil fuels have barely been mentioned in 30 years of global climate negotiations, due in part to by big fossil fuel exporters and lobbyists.
Frustrated by slow progress, a coalition of nations has bypassed global climate talks to discuss how to actually phase out fossil fuels.
The first of these summits will take place next week. More than 50 nations will gather in Santa Marta, Colombia, to discuss a potential to manage fossil-fuel phaseout while .
Colombian Environment Minister Irene Vélez Torres says it comes at the “”, as the oil crisis focuses global attention on fossil fuel dependency.
If next week’s summit produces real momentum to wean off fossil fuels amid the energy crisis, we might look back at it as a social tipping point where early adopters move in earnest – and make it easier for the rest of the world to follow.
, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, and , Professor of Cognitive Psychology and Director of the Institute for Climate Risk and Response,
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